Time to Get Serious (Update: Jurrjens scratched, Brandon Beachy to make his debut)

Derrek Lee's grand slam propelled the Braves to a sweep, and prompted one lone Braves fan to lose his mind in Citi Field's nosebleeds. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Update: At 3:25 PM, the team announced that Jair Jurrjens will be replaced with rookie Brandon Beachy.

First things first, I had a great time at Citi Field (gorgeous park and relatively reasonable concessions prices) on Sunday. Mainly because with the Jets playing at home, no Mets fans showed up and my gal and I had the entire section to ourselves. As the only person within ten rows of me, I was able to stand up and clap obnoxiously loud after Derrek Lee’s grand-slam. The duration of my one-man ovation was excessive, but it’s not like I was outnumbered or anything. While sweeping the Mets was fun, important business awaits.

(Update) Braves Take Opener With Huge Inning

Jason Heyward's 18th home run was the difference maker Friday night. (AP Photo/Kathy Kmonicek)

Bad news New Yorkers, the Met-Killer torch has officially been passed. At the rate Jason Heyward his drilling Mets pitching this year, he’ll have to name his first born son Citi.

Jonathon Niese pitched well for the Mets, save for a nightmarish fourth inning which saw the Braves push across six runs, five of which followed a two-out walk to Tommy Hanson. The big inning was capped by Heyward’s bomb which turned a tie game into a Braves lead, and left a huge dent in the Subway sign on the upper-deck facade. The runs would prove sufficient for Tommy Hanson (who was solid, if not dominant) and the Braves held on for a 6-4 win.

Braves-Mets Series Preview

Braves starter Derek Lowe, pictured with catcher David Ross, has been lights out in his last two starts. (AP Photo/ Gene J. Puskar)

This weekend, the Braves will make their final visit of the season to Citi Field.

The trip will kick off a crucial stretch of nine straight road games. If this team is going to make it to the playoffs, it is going to have to earn it.

Pitching probables for the upcoming series with the Mets, plus an update on the other teams in the race after the jump.

Free Falling

The Braves lost a series at home for just the second time all year. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

Seriously? I’m not disappointed in the team for dropping the series to the Nationals (while falling three back of the Phillies) as much as I am in the crowd, which was as small as I’ve seen it all year during Wednesday afternoon’s series finale.

I get that it was a day game, and that school is back in session, and that the Nationals aren’t exactly a huge draw. But come on people, there’s a damn pennant race going on. Have you given up already?

Back Stretch Primer

Jason Heyward is heating up at the right time. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

My worst fears were confirmed last night. Tim Hudson isn’t perfect. And after allowing13 runs in his last three starts and 18 in his past five, he can probably forget about the Cy Young too. Huddy’s rough night started with a 28-pitch first, and ended with a four-run fifth. Both innings were highlighted by home runs from Braves killer (read: everyone killer) Albert Pujols.

Braves finalize deal with Salcedo

The Braves finalized a deal today with 18-year old prospect Edward Alcedo. Braves scouts compare him to Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez, and the scouting database PerfectGameUSA gives him a perfect 10 on its grading scale. Alcedo originally signed a deal with the Indians in 2007 but an investigation by Major League Baseball determined that he wasn’t yet 16.  Three years later, he’s a member of the Braves organization, who will likely push him through the minor league ranks quickly as it gears up for the Jason Heyward-Freddie Freeman era in 2011 or 2012.

Update: Damon to Tigers

Well, that was fast. Less than 12 hours after a report surfaced about his desire to play for the Braves, Johnny Damon agreed to a one-year deal with Detroit according to ESPN’s Karl Ravech.  The offer is reported to be worth $8 million, nearly double what the Braves offer was believed to be.

Good for the Tigers for finding a leadoff hitter (they needed one more than the Atlanta), good for Johnny Damon for finding a team, and good for Scott Boras for squeezing an extra million out of Detroit by expressing his desire to play elsewhere for less money.  But most of all, good for the Braves, as they can now proceed into spring with the outfield picture cleared up.

Damon still wants to join Braves, who still don’t need him

Scott Boras is at it again.  Wreaking of desperation, the super agent continues to posture for Johnny Damon, his last remaining unsigned client. According to Mark Bowman of mlb.com, the 36-year old is still considering the one-year, $4 million offer the Braves made two weeks ago. But what happened to the two-year, $14 million offer from Detroit that Damon was supposedly so close to signing just days ago?  It’s becoming more and more apparent that the Tigers never extended anything beyond a one-year deal, believed to be around $7 million per.

So why not take that deal if you’re Damon?  He says he’d prefer to play in Atlanta, and he and Boras seem to think Atlanta wants him too. The main reason cited for why Damon would make sense as a Brave, is the team’s supposed need for a leadoff hitter.  A look at the stats will show that this link is flimsy at best, as Damon is no more equipped to top the Braves’ order than the man he would displace, current CF Nate McLouth.

Let’s look at the relevant numbers between Damon and McLouth the past two years, and tell me why anyone, other than Damon’s agent, would continue to suggest a need on Atlanta’s end:

Damon: 550 AB, 155 H, .282 AVG, 107 R, 24 HR, 82 RBI, 71 BB, 98 SO, 12 SB, .365 OBP, .854 OPS

McLouth: 507 AB, 130 H, .256 AVG, 86 R, 20 HR, 70 RBI, 68 BB, 99 SO, 19 SB, .352 OBP, .788 OPS

It’s hard to foresee Damon approaching those 2009 totals when you weigh the comparative ballpark factors, which list Turner Field near the bottom in every category, and take him out of the stacked Yankees lineup. Then consider that McLouth has corrected the vision problems that he says contributed to his disappointing second-half, and you can actually see McLouth’s numbers actually improving, while Damon’s will surely fall.

So, is it worth it to the Braves to bring in a guy who can’t throw, can’t play multiple positions, and won’t come anywhere near his ’09 production, based solely on the myth that he’d be the leadoff hitter the Braves desperately need?  Only at the bargain-level price currently being offered by the club. As spring training kicks into full swing, Scott Boras continues to wait, leaking fake contract offers in an attempt to squeeze more dollars from the few remaining bidders. Frankly, it’s a little sad.

Braves closing in on 18-year old shortstop prospect Salcedo

MLB.com reports that the Braves are “close” to signing Edward Salcedo, an 18-year old shortstop from La Vega, Dominican Republic. Salcedo originally signed with the Indians in 2007 until his age was called into question-he originally claimed he was born in 1989, it has since been verified that he was born in 1991.  At 6-3, 190 lbs., Salcedo possesses the frame to eventually grow into a third basemen at the professional level. According to his scouting profile on the PerfectGame database, he has a plus arm and possesses “all the tools to be a top player.”

Based on this clip of Salcedo taking BP, he has a bit of Gary Sheffield in him, wrapping the bat around his head before exploding through the ball with a quick, even stroke:

Frank Wren has received his fair amount of criticism in this space, but his commitment to the farm system cannot be ignored.  With the stockpile of young talent currently being assembled, the Braves are poised to contend for the better part of the next decade.

Jurrjens has “no structural damage”, but not out of the woods yet

The good news from Jair Jurrjens’ MRI came today, with no structural damage found in his right shoulder.  The bad news, is that we’ve heard this before. Here’s an excerpt from the Braves’ homepage in 2007, about reliever Mike Gonzalez and his elbow:

After battling some discomfort during the first 2 1/2 weeks of this season, Gonzalez’s mind was put at ease when an April 19 MRI showed no structural damage. He became even more confident with his elbow when, over the course of the next 10 innings, he held opponents scoreless and registered nine strikeouts.

No, a sore shoulder is not nearly as fragile as an elbow ligament, but the same danger exists in over-trusting another positive MRI.  If Jurrjens proceeds through spring like it is business as usual and continues to wear down his shoulder, he could end up with real structural damage, as was the case when Gonzalez injured his arm permanently because an MRI told him it was fine.

Frank Wren hopes Jurrjens can soon resume his preparations for the season:

“This is just one of those times of the year when we are very cautious,” Wren said. “This was just one of those standard operating procedures that you perform when treating a player to determine what is causing the discomfort. We just don’t take chances with our players….He might be a little behind the guys during the early days of camp, but he’ll quickly make that time up.”

While it’s easy to remain cautiously optimistic about Jair’s shoulder, the bottom line is that arm troubles are inevitable with young pitchers.  Where there’s smoke (soreness in this case), there’s usually fire. I just hope Jurrjens and the Braves don’t proceed too quickly with the false confidence a medical report can give. There’s too much at stake, i.e. JJ’s career, to rush into anything for the sake of the team, or the season.

“It just didn’t want to go away,” Jurrjens said. “It’s definitely a relief to hear them say that everything should be fine.”

It should be fine, but it’s still too early to tell.